One issue mentioned in the Kriegspiel especially in the 1828 supplement is the importance of being able to judge the fall of shot and adjust the fire to achieve the required level of accuracy. I will look up some figures for casualty rates used in that classic work.
From the v Reisswitz 1824 Kriegsspiel we get the following casualty rates from the dice tables for a TWO minute turn for an artillery battery of 6 guns and 2 howitzers at GOOD EFFECT (good visibility of target and fall of shot and firm ground)
Small Canister – close range – 20-60 casualties average 35
Large Canister – longer range 10-40 average 26
Elevation (ie normal roundshot) 6-18 average 9.5
Random (ricochet) 3-10 average 6.2
BAD EFFECT (wet ground, limited visibility, plunging shot etc.)
Small Canister 12-30 average 20
Large Canister 8-20 average 14
Elevation 4-8 average 5.5
Random 1-4 average 2.3
Howitzers are marginally less effective for canister and more effective at longer range.
Canister and elevation are three rounds per minute whereas Random (Ricochet) is two rounds per minute.
So for the battery firing under elevation for two minutes we have 16 rounds causing 6-18 casualties – average 9.5 for good effect (roughly 1.7 rounds per casualty) but average 5.5 or 3 rounds per casualty bad effect.
JMM, I would be interested to know how many rounds are required to cause a casualty based on your algorithms and results from playtests?